Review of Electricity Supply, Demand and Transmission Projections in South-East Europe in the Period 2008-2020

Southeast Europe
Review of electricity supply, demand and transmission projections in South-East Europe in the period 2008-2020

client: ČEZ (Czech Republic)

type: Regional Study (Transmission)

finishing date: July 2008

team: M. Vukovic, S. Mijailovic, Z. Vujasinovic, T. Martinovic, D. Harambasic, N. Jovic, M. Mandic

The objective of this study is to analyse different scenarios of generation surplus in SEE region, features of electricity market development, and SEE transmission network evolution in the period under analysis(2008-2020). The study work out a detailed and quantitative analysis of:

  • Review of electricity balance in the past period (2001-2007) – installed capacities and specification for each power plant in the region, level and patterns of electricity exchanges between SEE countries, present transfer capacities between SEE power systems
  • Generation expansion plans/demand forecast per SEE power system and surplus capabilities – load forecasts (2008-2020) peak [MW], typical day load [MW] an annual energy consumption [GWh], new generation units per type/fuel, installed capacities, average yearly generation, year of commissioning in high, medium and low scenario, surplus capability analysis per country based on margin between generation and demand

Assessment and evolution of transfer capacities between SEE countries – analysis of possible transmission and operation constraints which could limit the electricity exchanges in the region, specification of most reliable foreseen internal and cross-border transmission network reinforcements in SEE (2007-2020), calculation of the TTC/NTC values between SEE countries, assessing the impact of the foreseen reinforcements with reference to three target years (2011/2016/2020) and three scenarios of development(pessimistic/realistic/optimistic).

Type of services provided:

  • Review of electricity balance in the past period (2001-2007) – installed capacities
  • Generation expansion plans/demand forecast per SEE power system and surplus capabilities
  • List of recommendations, identifying the needs and opportunities for facilitating electricity exchanges between SEE countries
  • Assessment and evolution of transfer capacities between SEE countries
  • Perspective congestion location in SEE transmission network